PRINCIPLES OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT OF AIR TRAFFIC FLOWS AND CAPACITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18372/2306-1472.68.10904Keywords:
aeronautical system, air traffic flow and capacity management, air traffic services, flight safety assessment, safety of flights, uncertainty factorsAbstract
Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the general principles of safety and capacity management in Aeronautical systems regarding air traffic flows operations under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework assessing at the same time both the uncertainty model and flight plans model are proposed. Methods: To study features of safety of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions were built the original probabilistic models including Bayesian Network for flight plan and air traffic control sector model based on Poisson Binomial Distribution. Results: We obtained models for safety management of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions. We discussed appropriate approach for estimating the parameters of safety of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty and Markovian uncertainty model for the flight plan. Discussion: We developed the Bayesian Network for flight plan and air traffic control sector models for safety management of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions.
References
ATFCM Operations Manual. Network manager. Brussels, Eurocontrol. 2015. 196 p.
ATFCM Users Manual. Network operations. Brussels, Eurocontrol. 2015. 122 p.
Caron G.M., Savéant P., Schoenauer M. Multiobjective tactical planning under uncertainty for air traffic flow and capacity management. IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation. 2013. P. 1548-1555.
Bertsimas D., Lulli G., Odoni A.R. An Inte-ger Optimization Approach to Large-Scale Air Traffic Flow Management. Operations Research. 2011. Vol. 59, N1. P. 211-227.
Clare G., Richards A. Air Traffic Flow Management Under Uncertainty: Application of Chance Constraints. 2nd International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems (ATACCS’2012). 2012. P. 20–26,
Oussedik S., Delahaye D., Schoenauer M., Air Traffic Management by Stochastic Optimiza-tion. 2nd USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar. 1998. P. 1–10.
Flener P., Pearson J., Ågren M., Garcia Avello C., Celiktin M., Dissing S., Air-Traffic Complexity Resolution in Multi-Sector Planning using Constraint Programming. 7th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, 2007.
Delahaye D., Oussedik S., and Puechmorel S. Airspace Congestion Smoothing by Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. 20th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing (SAC 2005). 2005. P. 907–912.
Kharchenko, V.; Chynchenko, Yu. Integrated safety management system in air traffic services. Proceedings of the National Aviation University. 2014. N1. P. 6-9.
Kharchenko, V.; Chynchenko, Yu. Estimation of effect of uncertainty factors on safety of air traffic flows in terminal control areas. Proceedings of the National Aviation University. 2015. N4.
Kharchenko, V.; Chynchenko, Yu. Integrated risk picture methodology for air traffic management in Europe. Proceedings of the National Aviation University. 2013. N1. P. 15-19.
Gilbo E.P., Smith S.B. New Method for Probabilistic Traffic Demand Predictions for En Route Sectors Based on Uncertain Predictions of Individual Flight Events. 9th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, 2011.