THE AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT PROBABILITY MODEL IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18372/2306-1472.69.11058Keywords:
aircraft accident, airport, accident probability, ecological danger, environment, fatal aircraft accident, local aircraft crash riskAbstract
This paper describes the results of processing and statistical analysis of accident data involving different types of Ukrainian-registered aircraft and including data from the CIS. The proportions of aircraft accidents both in Civil aviation of Ukraine and in Civil aviation of the Participants Agreement for different phases of flight have determined. The current models for assessing the probability of an aircraft accident in the vicinity of airports have analysed. The improved accident probability model is presented that allows for different categories of large and light aircraft to estimate the probability of the aircraft accident on the different phases of flight. The results of investigation the local aircraft crash risk at Kyiv Borispol international airport are presented.
References
Ministry of Labour and Social Policy of Ukraine (2003), “Method for determining risk and their acceptable levels for declaration of hazardous facilities”, Order no 637, 192 p.
Pikaar A., Weijts J., M. de Jong (2000) An enhanced method for the calculation of third party risk around large airports with application to Schiphol. Netherlands, NLR, 104 p.
Accident analysis for aircraft crash into hazardous facilities (Standard DOE-STD-3014-2006). U.S. Department of Energy, 215 p.
Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft Accident 1959–2013. Washington, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, 26 p.
The Interstate Aviation Committee, Aviation Accident Reports until 2013 “Civil aviation flight safety level of the contracting states of the Agreement on civil aviation and use of airspace”, available at: http://mak-iac.org/en/rassledovaniya/
bezopasnost-poletov/.
ASN Aviation Statistics. Available at: http://aviation-safety.net/statistics.
The State Aviation Administration of Ukraine, Annual Safety Reports until 2013 “Analysis of aviation safety level and identification of potential accidents associated with the Ukrainian-registered aircraft”, available at: http: //www.avia.gov.ua/docu-ments/Bezpeka-aviatsii/Bezpeka-polotiv/.
Sakach R.V., Zubkov B.V., Davidenko M.F. (1982) Bezopasnost poletov [Aviation safety]. Moscow, Transport Publ., 239 p.
Flight information 2013. Kyiv Borispol international airport. Available at: http://kbp.aero/.
Aviation Accident Reports. U. S. National Transportation Safety Board. Available at: http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/ reports_avia-tion.html.
Aviation Safety Reviews. UK Civil Aviation Authority. Available at: http://www. caa. co.uk/
application.aspx.
Annual Safety Reports. UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch. Available at: http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/annual_safety_reports.cfm.
Accident and Incident Dates. Federal Aviation Administration. Available at: http://www.faa.gov/data_research/accident_incident .
Annual reports. Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses. Available at: http://www. bea.aero/en/rapport.annuel/index.php.
Annual Safety Reviews. European aviation safety agency. Available at: http://easa.europa.eu/communications/general-publications.php.
Aviation Statistics. Transportation Safety Board of Canada. Available at: http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/aviation/index.asp.
ADREP ICAO. Request 198/80 (USSR). Available at: http://www.icao.int.
