• Oleksandr Zaporozhets National Aviation University
  • Inna Gosudarska National Aviation University



aircraft accident, airport, accident probability, ecological danger, environment, fatal aircraft accident, local aircraft crash risk


This paper describes the results of processing and statistical analysis of accident data involving different types of Ukrainian-registered aircraft and including data from the CIS. The proportions of aircraft accidents both in Civil aviation of Ukraine and in Civil aviation of the Participants Agreement for different phases of flight have determined. The current models for assessing the probability of an aircraft accident in the vicinity of airports have analysed. The improved accident probability model is presented that allows for different categories of large and light aircraft to estimate the probability of the aircraft accident on the different phases of flight. The results of investigation the local aircraft crash risk at Kyiv Borispol international airport are presented.

Author Biographies

Oleksandr Zaporozhets, National Aviation University

Doctor of Engineering. Professor.

Director of Institute of Environmental Security, National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Education: Kiev Institute of Civil Aviation Engineers (1978).

Research area: development of models and methods of information provision for environment protection from civil aviation impact.

Inna Gosudarska, National Aviation University

Candidate of Engineering.

Department of Safety of Human Activities, National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Education: National Pedagogical Dragomanov University, Kyiv, Ukraine (2002).

National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine (2004, 2008).

Research area: methods of third party risk assessments in the vicinity of the airports, ensuring ecological safety of airports.


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How to Cite

Zaporozhets, O., & Gosudarska, I. (2016). THE AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT PROBABILITY MODEL IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT. Proceedings of National Aviation University, 69(4), 69–76.