INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS OF THE EMERGENCY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS IN MARINE CARGO TRANSPORTATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18372/0370-2197.2(99).17631Keywords:
emergency situations, integral assessment, logistic analysis, sea freight transportation, vehicles, logisticsAbstract
The work provides a methodology for calculating risks based on the use of a model of the safety of cargo transportation by various types, including sea, transport, and a general model of the emergency development scenario. The considered theory of statistical decisions is intended for the development of recommendations on the rational application of actions in conditions of uncertainty and associated risk.
Given that accidents and the risk of emergency situations have a pronounced random nature, the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics are used to assess risks. Therefore, the article deals with the issue of vehicle accidents and related cases of cargo loss/damage, which are rare events distributed according to the Poisson law. Predicted estimates of the probability of failure of technical means can be determined using the theory of Markov processes.
The practical use of the integrated risk assessment methodology allows already at the stage of the initial design of transport and technological schemes of sea freight transportation to evaluate alternative options according to risk criteria and to develop measures to reduce the level of risk in order to increase the safety of transportation and preserve cargo. At the same time, risks are assessed not only under normal conditions of transportation, but also in cases of accidents, which is a mandatory condition when choosing methods and means to minimize losses and negative consequences of accidents and disasters.
The results of research on the development, development and improvement of the methodology of integrated risk assessment and ways of managing them in emergency situations to increase the safety of sea cargo transportation are also given.
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