Cognitive model for studying the level of protection of a critical infrastructure object

Abstract

The protection of critical infrastructure is strategically important for the functioning of the economy and security of the state, society and the population. To address the protection of critical infrastructure, it is necessary to analyze potential threats, explore the relationships between them and determine the impact of these threats on the system under study. However, there are some difficulties associated with a high degree of uncertainty, the complexity of strict formalization and the subjective nature of these tasks. In this regard, the paper proposes the use of a cognitive approach, which does not require a large amount of experimental data, provides an opportunity to process the information available to the expert and take into account both qualitative and quantitative factors. Based on this approach, a cognitive model was created, which is based on a fuzzy cognitive map and allows to study the impact of potential threats on the level of protection of critical infrastructure. To build a fuzzy cognitive map, many of the most important critical infrastructure threats from the point of view of this problem have been formed and causal links have been established between them. The evaluation of structural and topological properties of fuzzy cognitive map is carried out, its density, hierarchy index and centrality of concepts are determined. From the set of expertly formed set of concepts, the most important ones are selected. To determine the relative change in the level of protection of the critical infrastructure, a scenario modeling of the impact of the most important concepts on the studied system was performed. Based on the analysis of the data obtained as a result of the launch of appropriate scenarios, it is possible to prevent disruption of key elements of critical infrastructure, which, in turn, can lead to emergencies that can paralyze the lives of individual cities and the state as a whole.