Ensuring Freight Delivery in Conditions of Uncertainty





transport system, freight company, entropy, transport task, intelligent technology


The article discusses the issue of ensuring the delivery of goods in conditions of uncertainty, designed to predict the time of the transport task. The initial information for training the model is the carrier's data on the expected average time to complete the task. The analysis uses the entropy method. The analysis of the obtained results has been carried out. The results show that the use of the entropy method allows us to investigate its sensitivity to changes in the value of preferences. In the work on the application of entropy, three criteria are used: entropy should be minimal for well-defined quantities, be maximal for equiprobable quantities, and universal – applicable for both finite and infinite, discrete and continuous distributions. When changing the values of the parameters, we used cross entropy and quadratic entropy and, as a result, we obtained an estimate of uncertain variables that can be used to solve the transport problem under uncertainty.

Author Biographies

Dmytro Shevchuk , National Aviation University, Kyiv

Doctor of Engineering Science. Head of the Air Transportation Management Department. Professor

Volodymyr Kasianov, National Aviation University, Kyiv

Doctor of Engineering Science. Professor.

Honored Professor of the National Aviation University

Yuliya Shevchenko, National Aviation University, Kyiv

PhD in Economics. Associate Professor


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