Statistical modelling and evaluation of aircraft collision risk using correlation theory
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18372/2306-1472.21.1031Abstract
The method of statistical modelling and evaluation of collision probability is offered. It can make a methodological basis for an evaluation of air traffic safety, and also to be applied to detection of potential conflict situations while air traffic control. For the mathematical description of predicted air traffic movement, and for the evaluation of collision probability the correlation functions of deviation process from planned flight trajectory are used. The procedure of an evaluation of collision risk is presented.
References
Bakker G.J., Kremer H.J., Blom H.A.P. Proba-bilistic Approaches Toward Conflict Prediction //Air Transportation Systems Engineering, AIAA. – 2001. – P. 677–694.
Paielli R.A., Erzberger H. Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight // Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics. – 1997. – Vol. 20, № 3. – Р. 588–596.
Васильєв В.М. Методи прогнозування і оцінки ймовірності конфліктів при польоті літаків на маршрутах //Вісн. НАУ. – 2004. – №2. – С. 24–29.
Унгурян С.Г., Маркович Е.Д., Волевач А.И. Анализ и моделирование систем управления воздушным движением.– М.: Транспорт, 1980. – 205 с.