PECULIARITIES OF THE PROACTIVE APPROACH IN THE FLIGHT SAFETY SYSTEM

Abstract

The paper proposes a method of quantitative assessment of risks associated with the human factor on the basis of empirical and theoretical approaches, taking into account proactive preventive forecasting in the safety management system. The causes of aviation accidents are due to the influence of several simple dangers, including the human factor, which in the period preceding the aviation event, were hidden in the form of shortcomings. Given the hidden nature of the hazards, it makes it difficult to predict and assess. But the presence of a hidden flaw in the system can lead under certain conditions to its potential transformation into a trigger (cause, trigger), which triggers further negative developments. That is why the content of preventive work is fundamentally changing.

 Therefore, preventive work to assess the impact of the human factor should be carried out on the far approaches to possible aviation events, and not after they occur.

Which is central to a proactive approach. One of these hidden dangers is the current functional state of the decision-maker, which can be caused by both a sudden deterioration in health and the inability of the body’s current adaptive capacity to withstand the current external factors of destabilization. And since the main place in such a proactive approach is the identification and development of corrective measures to reduce the impact of the human factor in the safety management system, it requires a systematic approach to identifying possible methods for assessing the current state of the operator. An approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of the operator’s functional state from the equilibrium state and the basis of empirical and theoretical approaches is proposed.

The empirical approach is implemented in the development of a system of differential equations that determine the balance between the amount of adaptive potential of the organism and the number of destabilizing factors affecting the organism. However, in the absence of the necessary statistics on the risks that occurred in this person, it is necessary to use a theoretical approach, which allows based on a test set of diagnostic data of persons at risk to develop a model for predicting the occurrence of such risk groups to verify aviation operators.

The theoretical approach is based on the use of artificial intelligence, namely the development of an artificial neural network that predicts the occurrence of a negative event that upsets the balance of the functional state of the operator as a trigger that triggers erroneous actions and danger. Such a negative event is a source of danger which is predicted on the basis of the developed artificial network and allows to prevent in advance the manifestation of a negative event before the beginning of its impact on the planned production activities.