FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY IN 24th CYCLE

В. Г. Лозицький, В. М. Єфiменко

Abstract


For more precise definition ofprognosis of 24th cycle, the peculiarities of growth of solar activity was studied in previous 23 cycles. The interestwas focused on a phase of sharp increasing of activity, beginning from 20th month of cycles. The sufficiently closecorrelation was found between smoothed Wolf’s number in the cycle maximumWmax and increment of sunspot’s numberon phase of activity increasing. From this analysis follows that for 24th cycle the following parameters are expected:Wmax =105±11, аnd time of maximum — mean 2013.

Keywords


solar activity cycles; solar physics.

References


Пiшкало М.I. Попереднiй прогноз 24-го i 25-го циклiв сонячної активностi на основi кореляцiї мiж характери-

стиками циклiв // Кинематика и физика небес. тел. — 2008. — 24, №5. — С. 370–378.

Наговицын Ю.А., Кулешова А.И. Соотношение Вальдмайера и ранняя диагностика максимума текущего цикла солнечной активности // Астрон. ж-л. — 2012. — 89, №10. — С. 883–887.

Badalyan O.G., Obridko V.N., S´ykora J. Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23

and 24 // Solar Phys. — 2001. — 199, №2. — P. 421–435.

Dikpati M., de Toma G., Gilman P.A. Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based

tool // Geophys. Res. Lett. — 2006. — 33. — L05102.

Kane R.P. A preliminary estimate of the size of the coming solar cycle 24, based on Ohl’s precursor method // Solar

Phys. — 2007. — 243, №1. — P. 205–217.

Svalgaard L., Cliver E.W., Kamide Y. Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years? // Geophys. Res. Lett. — 2005.

— 32. — L01104.


Full Text: PDF

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.